Kokanee is a retrieval system, an institutional memory, and a working teammate, all backed by your own corpus. Here is what that means in practice, and what it deliberately is not.
The corpus establishes that Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together supply roughly 60% of global cocoa. Prices have already moved from ~$2.40/kg in 2021–2022 to ~$7.80/kg in 2025, a tripling driven by production shortfalls rather than geopolitical fear premia. This matters because the market is not pricing in conflict risk today, it is pricing in structural supply loss. A violence spillover would interact with an already stressed baseline, not a slack one.
Côte d'Ivoire's conflict profile is currently low (ACLED: Index Level Low/Inactive, 262 events in 2025, rank 65/156). Ghana's is materially worse and deteriorating (Index Level Turbulent, rank 44/156, 615% increase in violence events since 2015, 538 events in the 12 months through November 2025). The northern corridor through which Burkina Faso–based jihadists would transit is the same corridor where cocoa farms and cooperatives operate in both countries.
At 30 days, the most likely impact is a speculative price spike driven by trader positioning rather than confirmed supply loss. Cocoa futures markets respond to forward supply expectations, and a credible incursion into northern Ghana or the Ivorian border zone would be enough to move front-month contracts even before a single farm is affected.